Some uncomfortable thoughts as the election approaches.

There are some people who will look at the polls, forget 2016 ever happened, and be confident their candidate will win. I have some thoughts that should make them uncomfortable. 

Imagine you are a person familiar with American elections. You fell into a coma on November 1, 2013 and wake up November 1, 2020. You don't know who's running, but you are asked to predict the results of the election. You're told there's a Republican incumbent and a Democratic challenger. 

You're not told any poll numbers, but you are given some other information: 

·The Dow Jones Industrial Average today and four years ago 

·The results of a survey showing how people feel they're doing compared to four years ago 

·Images of the last ten rallies for each candidate, only revealing the party of each 

·A summary of on both campaigns' ground games 

·Shifts in voter identification from state to state over the last four years 

·The Republican incumbent's favorable ratings among blacks and Hispanics 

The politically knowledgeable person would see these and predict a victory for the Republican candidate. And if those numbers on black and Hispanic voters translate into votes, the prediction would be a landslide of a magnitude not seen since 1984.