On judging risks

 Mitch Daniels, former governor of Indiana and current president of Purdue University, had some powerful words in his commencement speech for 2021 Purdue graduates.

The risk of failure, of a hit to one’s reputation, or just that the gains don’t outweigh the costs,  all these can deter or even paralyze a person out of fulfilling the responsibility someone has entrusted to them. Should I make this investment, or husband my cash? Take that job offer, or stay where I’m comfortable? Engage in this debate, or sit silently?  Choose this life partner, or play it safe?

This last year, many of your elders failed this fundamental test of leadership. They let their understandable human fear of uncertainty overcome their duty to balance all the interests for which they were responsible. They hid behind the advice of experts in one field but ignored the warnings of experts in other realms that they might do harm beyond the good they hoped to accomplish. 

Sometimes they let what might be termed the mad pursuit of zero, in this case zero risk of anyone contracting the virus, block out other competing concerns, like the protection of mental health, the educational needs of small children, or the survival of small businesses. Pursuing one goal to the utter exclusion of all others is not to make a choice but to run from it. It’s not leadership; it’s abdication. I feel confident your Purdue preparation won’t let you fall prey to it.

People are bad at judging risks, especially a risk that is loudly blared across newspapers, television, and social media.  Today, I'm hearing from friends that they are afraid of going into large gatherings, even if everyone present is vaccinated and wearing masks.  My response, a likely futile attempt to get people to weigh competing priorities and uncertainties in the way Daniels suggests, is as follows.

"If your risk of death or serious injury from viral infection is determined to be less than your risk of death or serious injury from driving to the gathering, would that be enough for you to deem the risk acceptable?"

The actual ability to get to zero deaths is nonexistent.  One only needs to look at the protections around those with compromised immune systems, such as those who have had bone marrow transplants.  It is important to note that we didn't close down stores and restaurants to protect these people; we protected them directly.

There is an unfortunate level of classism in the response to the virus, with powerful people acting to try to get to zero risk... for people like themselves.  Anyone who transitioned to working from home, continuing to receive a full paycheck, fills the role of the wolf in the joke "Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner."  Perhaps the most egregious example came from schoolteachers.  Faced with returning to in person instruction, facing the same group of students, from a demographic with some of the lowest virus risks, they still said no.  The line of thinking is clear:

"I am a professional.  I have a college degree, maybe even an advanced degree.  I should not have to risk my own health.  That risk should fall to the grocery store clerks and delivery drivers.  You know, the lesser folk."